My 2011 Oscar picks

I love the Oscars. Even though I won’t be able to watch the broadcast live this year, I thought I’d give you my picks for who will win and who should win. This year the most controversial category is Best Supporting Actress. It seemed like it was Melissa Leo’s year. After winning both the SAG and the Golden Globe, it appeared that Leo was destined for the award season trifecta by picking up her first Oscar. Unfortunately, the Supporting Actress category has often been the one where Academy voters think outside the box. Mira Sorvino seemed to have come from nowhere when she beat out Kate Winslet or how about Anna Paquin who had to be escorted by her mom because she was still a “wee little baby”. Remember 1992 when Marissa Tomei surprised everyone including Judy Davis and Vanessa Redgrave, or 1996 when Juliette Binoche walked right past Lauren Bacall?

Surprises are what the Oscars are all about, catching those stars at their most vulnerable, and then throwing them a curve ball as they sit trapped in their seats as the whole world witnesses their humiliation. And don’t act like you don’t hope for that moment when the shoe in’s name isn’t called, and they practically leap up out of their seat before they realize they’ve lost. I know that’s how I felt when Marcia Gay Harden beat out the favorite, Kate Hudson. Kate sat there with a frozen expression on her face. She couldn’t do what I did at home: scream at the TV, throw cushions from the sofa and storm off into the kitchen for a bag of chips.

The Oscars is really a lesson in sadomasochistic restraint. Stars have to laugh at the unfunny jokes, make sure they don’t pick their noses and clap when their name isn’t called so that they’re perceived as a good sport. The Oscar broadcast isn’t for them; it’s for us, the viewer. I suspect that most stars would rather have the award delivered to their homes then to have to undergo the challenge of the Red Carpet. In those hours during the broadcast, stars are tortured for our viewing pleasure. That’s not to say that winning doesn’t change their lives, but let’s face it, they’re already a member of a very fortunate few.

These past few years, Academy voters have been conservative, but it’s not a show until someone goes home crying. Sorry Eddie Murphy. Here are my picks:

Best Picture

Should win – King’s Speech.

Will win – King’s Speech.

Best Actor

Should win – Colin Firth

Will win – Colin Firth

Best Actress

Should win – Annette Bening

Will win – Natalie (I didn’t really dance) Portman

Best Supporting Actor

Should win – Christian Bale

Will win – Christian Bale

Best Supporting Actress

Should win – Melissa Leo

Will win – Hailee Steinfeld.

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4 Comments

  1. Posted February 12, 2011 at 12:42 pm | Permalink

    Since I have no clue this year, I am going to use ALL of your picks for my votes in an Oscar pool a friend has every other year. If I win the jackpot, I’ll buy you a beer! I have to bet on ALL the categories so anymore tips I’d take.

    My only guess is for the foreign film “Dogtooth”, and I tend to go for the films that I WANT to win, rather than what I think will actually win because the whole thing is a big scam anyhow…

  2. Posted February 12, 2011 at 12:45 pm | Permalink

    I can’t believe INCEPTION was nominated for anything other than special effects! it was TOTALLY BAD, the script was HORRIBLE and it put me to SLEEP…

    It was terrible, don’t you agree?

    I have no faith in the Oscars after Avatar was nominated.

  3. Bryan
    Posted February 12, 2011 at 6:50 pm | Permalink

    Best Picture

    Should win – The Social Network.

    Will win – King’s Speech. (Colin’s Firth acting was impressive and the only thing that made the movie watchable, I for one found the movie boring)

    Best Actor

    Should win – Jessie Eisenberg and Colin Firth both deserve it equally.

    Will win – Colin Firth

    Best Actress

    Should win – Natalie (not only did I act very well, I also at least tried to dance) Portman.
    Whether it was she who danced or not is not important, the movie had a lot of acting involved as well and Portman did an excellent job according to me in showing the transition from White Swan to a hysterical delusional Black Swan. Her acting, her expressions were impeccable and the oscar is for acting primarily not for dance. The movie was named Black Swan for a reason, dancing is not the core of the movie.

    Annette (thank god I only had to act and there was no requirement to dance) Bening acted very well as well, there is no doubt about it. But Portman deserves it according to me more than anyone else.

    I had hated it when Angelina Jolie did not win for Changeling. I had loved her in the movie.

  4. spinellimd
    Posted February 13, 2011 at 4:57 pm | Permalink

    I agree Bryan, the Social Network was good but did it offer the viewer more than just pop artifice. King’s Speech, produced by the, Weinsteins is a historical film, something the academy voters tend to love. If I had it my way my way I would choose, The KIds Are Alright as Best Picture and with that best original screen play.


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